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Spring 2015

June 26th, 2015 by Daniel Lee

New Hampshire’s Economy Surpasses Pre-Recession Level

The Coos economy showed signs of stabilization after declining last year. The County Index ticked up from the prior quarter for the first time since Fall 2013. Although the economic activity level was still down from the same time a year earlier, the pace of declines was the slowest in a year on a year-over-year basis. The boost came from the tourism sector. More travelers came to the region and spent more; the year-over-year percent increase in the average Saturday vehicle traffic counts was the highest since the Great Recession and the year-over-year percent increase in spending at lodgings was also the highest since Fall 2013. However, the rest of the economy struggled. The goods-producing sector weakened further; industrial electricity sales marked a double-digit decline compared to the same period a year ago. The labor market contracted; wages and salaries decreased for the fifth consecutive quarter on a year-over-year basis. This declining job opportunities in the County appeared to have encouraged its residents to find jobs from outside the region; the pace of decreases in the number of employed residents was the slowest since Summer 2013. Although wages and salaries and number of employed residents are both labor market indicators, the latter is by place of residence while the former is by place of work. The County’s housing market saw signs of stabilization after a year of declines in home prices; the pace of declines in median home prices fell to a single digit on a year-over-year basis after marking three consecutive double-digit declines, and the volume of home sales increased two straight quarters.

The economic activity surpassed the pre-recession level in New Hampshire. The State Index surpassed an index of 100 for the first time since the Great Recession. Four out of the five component indicators either exceeded or reached the pre-recession level, an index of 100. The labor market strengthened; the number of employed residents was higher than any point since the Great Recession. The tourism sector remained strong; both the average Saturday vehicle traffic counts and spending at lodgings were up from the same period a year earlier. The state’s housing market data appeared to have heated up again; the volume of home sales increased two consecutive quarters after declining two quarters in a row and the pace of increases in median home prices rebounded after falling four straight quarters. Three of the four state leading indicators remained up.

Winter 2015

April 4th, 2015 by Daniel Lee

One State, but Two Economies

The economic activity decreased in Coos County in winter 2015. The County Index fell for the fourth consecutive quarter on a year-over-year basis. The pace of declines accelerated during the same period. The goods-producing sector weakened further; industrial electricity sales marked a double-digit decline compared to the same period a year ago. The broad economy faltered; both number of employed residents and wages and salaries decreased from prior year. On a positive note, more travelers came to the region and spent more; average Saturday vehicle traffic counts increased six consecutive quarters while spending at lodgings rose for the eighth straight quarter. The County’s housing market saw a sign of stabilization; although median home prices fell four consecutive quarters on a quarterly year-over-year basis, the volume of home sales rebounded and was up from winter 2014.

While the County Index declined further, the State Index inched closer to the pre-recession level. Four out of the five component indicators either exceeded or nearly reached the pre-recession level, an index of 100. The BLS’s revised employment data showed encouraging signs; the pace of increases in the number of employed residents accelerated two straight quarters. The tourism sector remained strong; both the average Saturday vehicle traffic counts and spending at lodgings were up from the same period a year earlier. The state’s housing market data painted a mixed picture; the volume of home sales rebounded and rose from the winter 2014 level, while the pace of increases in median home prices continued to slow down. Three of the four state leading indicators remained up; number of building permits was down three straight months.

Fall 2014

January 5th, 2015 by Daniel Lee

Tourism sector rise while rest of the economy fall.

The economic activity decreased in Coos County in fall 2014. The County Index fell for the third consecutive quarter on a year-over-year basis. The broad economy faltered; number of employed residents fell three straight quarters at an accelerating pace while wages and salaries also decreased for the third quarter in a row. The goods-producing sector weakened; industrial electricity sales decreased two consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. On a bright side, the tourism sector continued to expand; average Saturday vehicle traffic counts increased five consecutive quarters while spending at lodgings rose for the seventh straight quarter. The County’s housing market fell further; both housing sales and median home prices were lower than their fall 2013 levels.

The State’s economic growth slowed in fall 2014. Although the State Index increased for the 17th consecutive quarter on a quarterly year-over-year basis, the slowdown is evident in all component indicators. The industrial sector lost steam; although industrial electricity sales grew 11 consecutive quarters, its pace of growth fell two straight quarters. A similar trend was reflected in the labor market; the pace of increases in the number of employed residents decelerated since spring 2014. The tourism sector wasn’t an exception; the growth rates of both traveler spending at lodgings and average Saturday vehicle traffic counts were almost halved from their winter 2013 growth rates. However, all this may not mean an impending recession; the state economy’s leading indicators all pointed to a brighter future. The state’s housing market continued to cool off; the volume of home sales declined for the second straight quarter.

Summer 2014

October 8th, 2014 by Daniel Lee

Slowing Recovery

The economic activity decreased in Coos County between summer 2014 and summer 2013. The Economic Index fell for the first time since Winter 2013 on a year-over-year basis. The pace of growth decreased steadily for three straight quarters. Though, three of the five component indicators still remained up from their 2013 summer levels. The decline in the economic activity was attributed largely to the struggling goods-producing sector and the stagnant labor market. Number of employed residents declined two quarters in a row on a year-over-year basis, while industrial electricity sales fell after increasing two consecutive quarters. The County’s housing market activity fell; both home sales and median home prices decreased from a year earlier. On a positive note, the tourism sector continued to grow; both average Saturday vehicle traffic counts and spending at lodgings were up from the prior year. But the pace of growth in spending at lodgings declined three straight quarter.

The State’s economy remained on track to recovery in summer 2014. The State Index increased 16 consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. All five component indicators remained up from the prior year. But, the pace of growth fell after increasing two straight quarters. The industrial sector continued to get stronger; industrial electricity sales grew ten consecutive quarters. The labor market remained strong as well; the number of employed residents expanded on a year-over-year basis. The tourism sector continued to be a force behind the recovery; Saturday vehicle traffic counts rose five quarters in a row and spending at lodgings increased six consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. The state’s housing market cooled off; home sales declined from prior year for the first time since summer 2011. Lastly, we are excited to announce an addition of a leading indicator for the state’s tourism industry. It is reported at the bottom of the leading indicator section.

Spring 2014

July 9th, 2014 by Daniel Lee

Recovery continued at modest pace.

The economic activity increased in Coos County between spring 2014 and spring 2013. The economy registered positive growth for the fifth consecutive quarter on a year-over-year basis, although the pace of growth declined two straight quarters. Four of the five component indicators were up from their 2013 spring levels. The tourism sector continued to lead the county’s economic recovery; both average Saturday vehicle traffic counts and spending at lodgings remained up from the prior year. The good-producing sector gained momentum; industrial electricity sales increased two consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. As a cautionary note, there were some early indications that the recovery may be slowing down. Number of employed residents declined from prior year for the first time since winter 2013. In addition, the pace of growth in spending at lodgings declined two straight quarter. The County’s housing market hit the brakes; both housing sales and median home prices were lower than their 2013 spring levels.

The State’s economic recovery gained momentum and widespread in spring 2014. The State Index increased 15 consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. The pace of growth rose two straight quarters. All five component indicators remained up from the prior year. The industrial sector gained momentum; industrial electricity sales grew nine consecutive quarters and its pace of growth increased three straight quarters. The labor market stayed the course on recovery; the pace of increases in the number of employed residents accelerated. The tourism sector continued to be a force behind the recovery; both average Saturday vehicle traffic counts and spending at lodgings were higher than their spring 2013 levels. The state’s housing market showed signs of cooling off; the pace of increases in median home prices slowed for the first time since Fall 2012.

Winter 2014

April 10th, 2014 by Daniel Lee

Economy chugged along amid severe winter weather.

In Winter 2014, the County’s economy remained on its path of economic recovery despite severe winter weather. Although the winter storms dampened the pace of growth, the County Index increased four consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis with all five component indicators up from their 2013 winter levels. The good-producing sector started growing again; industrial electricity sales was higher than the prior year for the first time since Spring 2011. The labor market continued to improve; both number of employed residents and estimated wages and salaries were up from a year earlier. The tourism sector remained strong as well; both average Saturday vehicle traffic counts and spending at lodgings remained up from the prior year. The County’s housing market appeared to have reached a plateau; housing sales declined for the first time in two years, while the pace of increases in housing prices fell for the third quarter in a row.

The State’s economy advanced in Winter 2014. The State Index increased 14 consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. The pace of growth rose four straight quarters. All five component indicators remained up from the prior year. The industrial sector was stronger; industrial electricity sales grew eight consecutive quarters and its pace of growth increased two straight quarters. The labor market continued its recovery as well; both number of employed residents and estimated wages and salaries remained up from the prior year. The tourism sector grew stronger; both average Saturday vehicle traffic counts and spending at lodgings continued to grow at faster clips. However, the leading indicators showed a mixed picture regarding the future economic activity. Only one of the four state leading indicators was up in February. The state’s housing market showed signs of cooling off; the growth rate of home sales continued to decline and fell to the lowest rate in two years.

Fall 2013

January 6th, 2014 by Daniel Lee

Strong and Broadening Recovery

In Fall 2013, there were signs that the fledgling recovery was getting stronger and spreading to the broader economy in Coos. The pace of growth in the County Index increased, while more indicators turned up. The year-over-year growth of the County Index accelerated since Summer 2012, when the Index started growing again for the first time since Winter 2011. Four of five component indicators turned up from Fall 2012. The rebounding labor market was reflective of the spreading recovery; the number of employed residents expanded three straight quarters on a year-over-year basis, and wages and salaries grew four consecutive quarters. The tourism sector continued to be the backbone of this recovery, although there were other positive factors, including the Burgess BioPower plant, the federal prison, and Gorham Paper and Tissue to a name a few.

The State’s economy grew stronger in Fall 2013. The pace of growth in the State Index accelerated for the third quarter in a row. All five component indicators turned up from the prior year. The tourism sector led the way for the state’s economy. More travelers came, and spent more money. But the economy was yet to show signs that it was back to the full strength. The labor market showed a mixed picture; the number of employed residents dipped after inching up four straight quarters, although the year-over-year growth of wages and salaries had been positive five straight quarters. As to the future economic activity, a group of leading indicators revealed no signs of a change in the direction of the economy. Two of the four state leading indicators were up in November; inverted initial unemployment claims and building permits for single family homes were up, while the average weekly hours of work and new business formation were down. The state’s housing market continued to expand, although there were signs that the boom was nearing its peak.

Student Report by Sean McGlynn

Collaboration is a necessity for economic development and success in rural counties, with Coös being no exception. The recent development of Ride the Wilds, one of the country’s most expansive ATV and snowmobile trails network, has helped develop a new market in the North Country and has shown what the region has to offer. “Today many vacationers are looking to have a totally different experience, an authentic adventure, the sort of thing that Coös County can provide” says Corrine Rober, Marketing Director of the Off Highway Recreational Vehicle Coalition (OHRV) which heads the Ride The Wilds project. Northern New Hampshire is one of the few places where ATV riding is being treated as an economic opportunity, and organic to the region, rather than as an environmental problem and nuisance. “Ride the Wilds has global potential, as there is little land in Europe where people can take part in activities like ATVing and snowmobiling”. The project has “unbelievable potential” to aid the development of all aspects of tourism within the North Country, as riders will need a place to stay, eat, and refuel their vehicles, notes Rober.

One of the places where this effect is most visible is in Colebrook, a town in dire need of economic development, especially after the recent shutdown of The Balsams. Steve Baillargeon, owner of Bear Rock ATV Rentals has seen the positive effect of Ride the Wilds first hand, and has also recognized the need for another market in the area: lodging. “ATVing is blowing up, but there is no lodging up here” says Steve. “People come up on their ATVs and then have to drive all the way back to Conway for a place to spend the night.” To help provide an answer to this lack of lodging, Steve is teaming up with Darrell Pack from Pack Custom Carpentry, LLC to offer a form of accommodations so new and interesting that it will likely become an attraction in its own right upon completion.

The name of this project is Digloos on the Wilds, an underground housing project that looks to fill the lodging needs of not just Ride the Wilds participants, but of anyone looking to experience the vast natural beauty that Colebrook has to offer; the area offers abundant opportunities for snowshoeing, fishing, kayaking, skiing and many other recreational activities. Pack Custom Carpentry will be teaming up with Formworks Building, Inc. of Durango, Colorado, a company with more than 30 years of experience in underground housing. Positioned just past the entrance of Bear Rock ATV Rentals, facing Dixville Notch, with Ride the Wilds’ trails intertwined throughout the property, Digloos has found a prime location, with over 400 acres for possible expansion, if the project takes off as anticipated. The project will start with ten super efficient underground homes, all facing the gorgeous Dixville Notch.

The homes will be able to sleep four adults, heat for 1/10th the energy of conventional structures of the same size, and are easily accessible to cars as well as off road vehicles. All homes will offer a view and outdoor fire pit where guests can relax after a long day of activities. Being underground, the noise of these vehicles will be of no disturbance to occupants of the properties. The progressive structures also use waste heat and geothermal transfer to heat walkways and melt ice, cutting down on maintenance costs. Priced at the low end of typical cabin rentals, this is an ideal lodging option for outdoor enthusiasts.

Pack Custom Carpentry will be looking locally for all of its interior needs. “Giving back to the community is the best marketing investment that you can make,” says Darrell Pack, which is why he will be turning to local crafters and artists to furnish and decorate the Digloos. He is also especially interested in local artists specializing in fiber optic lighting to help efficiently illuminate the underground homes. The Digloos will be “living showrooms” where guests can purchase any piece of artwork or furniture that catches their eye, says Pack. This is another effort at building the local area’s economy.

“This whole initiative can be just massive for the region” says Corrine Rober. When the tide rises all boats float, and it is hopeful that this will be the case for Colebrook and the surrounding regions. With the success of Ride the Wilds bringing opportunities for more businesses to develop, the future looks bright for  further collaboration and strengthening of the economy within Coös County.

Pack Custom Carpentry, LLC hopes to start working on this project during spring 2014. The company is in serious talks with groups interested in the project, but is still looking for investors, preferably from New Hampshire. If you are interested, please contact Darrell Pack by email, at dpack@packcustomcarpentry.com

 

Coincident Index

The Coos Coincident Index, which tracks the current state of the Coos economy, rose to 89.8 in Fall 2013 from Summer’s revised value of 88.9. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, the Index increased for the second quarter in a row.

The New Hampshire Coincident Index increased to 97.1 in Fall 2013 from Summer’s revised value of 96.6. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, the index increased for the 13th consecutive quarters.

How strong are the forces of change?

In Fall, the Coos Coincident Index rose for the second quarter in a row at an increasing pace. Four of five component indicators turned up from their Fall 2012 levels. The State Index increased for the 13th quarter in a row on a quarterly year-over-year basis. All five component indicators were up from a year ago. The pace of growth increased three quarters in a row.

Household Employment

Household employment measures the number of employed residents. In contrast to non-farm payroll employment that is more commonly used in the national and state indexes, household employment includes self-employed, unpaid domestic help and both farm and non-farm workers, all of which may be more significant in rural than urban economy. Employment tends to rise as economy grows.

Coos County

The employment index, adjusted for seasonal variation, increased for the third quarter in a row. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it expanded three straight quarters after falling nine quarters in a row.

New Hampshire

Employment at the state level, adjusted for seasonal variation, decreased after increasing four consecutive quarters. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, though, it continued to expand.

Rooms Revenue

Rooms revenue represents spending on accommodations paid by travelers. It’s a good hospitality sector’s indicator in the sense that it’s not an estimate, but an official count as reported by the New Hampshire Department of Revenue Administration. However, it may not fully reflect changes in the overall activity level in the hospitality sector. Although it tracks a majority of overnight travelers, it excludes day travelers and overnight travelers staying with friends and family and those who have second homes. In the case of the northern regions of the state, the effect of the drawback is less of a concern since day travelers are a small minority due to the distance from the major urban areas.

Coos County

The estimated rooms and meals revenue, adjusted for inflation and smoothed by the four quarter moving average, increased for the fourth quarter in a row. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it increased three straight quarters.

New Hampshire

The estimated rooms and meals revenue, adjusted for inflation and smoothed by the four quarter moving average, increased for the third consecutive quarter. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it rose three straight quarters.

Traffic Counts

It tracks the average vehicle traffic counts on Saturdays each quarter, which is automatically collected from traffic recorders located throughout the State. 12 recorders are selected to reflect traveler traffic in each of the seven travel regions in the State with two recorders from Coos County – Jefferson and Northumberland.

Coos County

Average Saturday traffic counts, smoothed by the four quarter moving average, increased two consecutive quarters. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it bounced back after decreasing four straight quarters.

New Hampshire

Average Saturday traffic counts, smoothed by the four quarter moving average, increased for the third straight quarter. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it expanded two consecutive quarters.

Wages and Salaries

The estimated wage and salaries disbursements represent total compensation including pay for vacation, bonuses, stock options, and tips. This data is obtained from all workers covered under state and federal unemployment insurance laws; in other words, it is full population counts, not sample-based estimates. Unlike the household employment report, however, it excludes self-employed, domestic workers, and most agricultural workers. For this difference, wages and salaries series complements the number of employed residents in monitoring the labor market conditions as well as the economy. A change in wages and salaries, adjusted for inflation, may reflect changes in the number of jobs, the ratio between part-time and full-time jobs, and wage rates.

Coos County

The estimated wages and salary disbursement, adjusted for inflation and smoothed by the four quarter moving average, expanded for the fourth time in five quarters. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it expanded four straight quarters.

New Hampshire

The estimated wages and salary disbursement, adjusted for inflation and smoothed by the four quarter moving average, increased for the fourth time in five quarters. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it increased for the fifth consecutive quarters.

Industrial Electricity Sales

It measures sales of electricity (kWh) to industrial customers. Utilities categorize consumers based on the North American Industry Classification System, demand, or usages. The industrial sector includes manufacturing, construction, mining, agriculture, fishing, and forestry establishments. Among these industries, manufacturing is a primary industry in Coos County making up 69% (73% for New Hampshire in 2008) of the total number of jobs in the industrial sector mentioned above according to the 2006 QCEW data. Therefore, a rise in industrial electricity sales may largely indicate invigorating manufacturing activities in the economy.

Coos County

Industrial electricity sales, smoothed by four quarter moving average, rebounded for the first time since Winter 2011. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it fell for the tenth consecutive quarter. But the pace of declines has slowed four straight quarters.

New Hampshire

Industrial electricity sales, smoothed by the four quarter moving average, inched up eight straight quarters. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, it expanded seven quarters in a row.

Real Estate

NCEI reports two real estate market indicators – home sales and median home prices. The data tracks residential homes sold, including condos and manufactured homes. The health of the real estate sector is important to the broad economy due to its multiplier effect. Home transactions not only generate income for real estate brokers and mortgage bankers but also bring more businesses in other sectors including moving services, home furnishings and appliances. In order to minimize volatility in Coos real estate market, indicators are averaged over a four quarter period.

Coos County

In Fall 2013, there have been increasing signs that the housing market boom in the County is nearing its peak. Although both home sales and prices continued to grow, the pace of growth in home sales declined three straight months and the pace of growth in median home prices was down to a single digit from 23.6% in Spring 2012 when it marked the fastest growth since the housing market recovery began.

New Hampshire

The state’s housing market also showed early signs of slowing. The pace of growth in home sales, smoothed by the four-quarter moving average, decreased to 12.7%, the slowest since Spring 2012. The median home price, smoothed by four quarter moving average, increased at a faster clip three quarters in a row. However, home prices may also follow the recent trends in home sales, as they tend to lag home sales.

 

Leading Indicators

Leading indicators are to provide a sense of future economic conditions in the state of New Hampshire. The report includes 7 leading indicators grouped into three different categories – 1) four leading indicators for the broad economy of New Hampshire; 2) two leading indicators of the state’s hospitality industry; 3) a leading indicator of the U.S. economy. The list of leading indicators for New Hampshire’s economy includes initial unemployment claims, average weekly hours of work in the total private sector, building permits, and new business formation; the list for the state’s hospitality industry has gas price, and Canadian dollar; the report also includes interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury and federal funds for the U.S. economy. Although the list is by no means exhaustive and indicators often do not go back long enough in time for statistically robust analysis, we believe it can still be a helpful tool. Raw data are processed so as to make it easier to detect a change in the direction of the underlying trend in the economy. In the summary table below, “up” during recession indicates recovery around the corner while “down” during an expansion signals an impending recession. During expansion, the likelihood of recession increases when more indicators turn down persistently. For example, all four leading indicators of NH economy start posting “down” month after month at the beginning of the state’s 2008 recession. The New Hampshire recessions are defined as the period of declines in the New Hampshire Coincident Index published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank.

In November 2013, two of the four leading indicators for New Hampshire were up compared to six months ago in their year-over-year growth rate.

 

 

 

 

 

*These series are inverted so that an “up” means an improvement. Layoff decreases (inverted layoff increases) when the labor market conditions improve; and a decrease in gas prices (an increase in inverted gas prices) may help increase the number of travelers. **”Up” or “down” in this series is a change from prior month as opposed to from 6 months ago.

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

The series is inverted so that an increase means an improvement. Initial claims decrease (inverted initial claims increase) when the labor market condition improves. The number of Initial claims tends to lead the business cycle. The chart demonstrates that it correctly predicted both the beginning and the ending of the past two recessions.

 

Average Weekly Hours of Work in Private Sector

It tends to turn before the economy does because employers often increase work hours of existing workers at the beginning of the recovery before committing to new hires; they do not want to take the risk of committing to new hires and seeing the economy fall back again. This data for New Hampshire only goes back to 2007.

New Business Formation

All companies that want to do business in the state must register at the NH Secretary of State. This data includes all types of businesses including corporations and limited liabilities companies. The number of new businesses tends to lead the business cycle. Although this series goes back only to 2006, it correctly predicted the beginning and ending of the state’s 2008 recession. The series is smoothed by 12 month moving average.

Building Permits for Single Family Homes

It’s often the case housing recovery leads the broad economy out of recession. This is because of its extensive ripple effect over the rest of the economy. Building construction requires inputs from many other industries such as window manufacturing, logging, plumbing, electricity services, banking, and home furnishings such as consumer electronics and furniture. The 2001 recession was a mild recession and a rare one that did not involve a housing slump. The series is smoothed by four month moving average.

Interest Rate Spread

The interest rate spread, the 10 year Treasury less the Federal Funds, is considered one of the best leading indicators for the national economy. The indicator is the sum of all the past values plus the spread in the current period. Therefore, it decreases when the current spread is negative (the 10 year T rate is lower than the Fed Funds Rate), which is indicative of an impending recession.

 

Canadian Dollar

The value of Canadian dollar (the U.S. dollar per Canadian dollar) is an important indicator of the current and future tourism activity in the State of New Hampshire. Canada is the most important source of foreign travelers in the state. An increase in the value of Canadian dollar makes travel to the U.S. more affordable for Canadians. The chart on the right shows its recent relationship with spending on accommodations by travelers.

Gas Price

It’s the monthly average of weekly New England regular conventional retail gas prices. A significant decrease in gas prices makes traveling more affordable and can help increase the number of travelers to the state. When gas prices increase substantially, traffic counts tend to fall and vice versa. Gas prices are inverted so that an increase indicates improving conditions.

 

Technical Notes

  • Employment is the number of people employed from the household survey.
  • The current values of rooms and meals revenues are estimated using the data obtained from participating local hoteliers.
  • The data series reported in the dollar values are adjusted for inflation.
  • Real Estate data is obtained from the Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN). All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the authors, and not that of NNEREN.

© Copyright 2010: Daniel Lee and Vedran Lelas, College of Business Administration, Plymouth State University.

Summer 2013

October 31st, 2013 by Daniel Lee

Coos Economy Rebounding

 

In Summer 2013, the Coos economy began to grow again. The Coos Index increased from the prior year for the first time since Winter 2011. Three of five component indicators turned up from summer 2012. The region’s tourism sector continued to be a force behind this recovery; both spending at lodgings and average Saturday traffic counts were up from prior quarter. As a result, the labor market was stronger; the number of employed residents expanded two straight seasons on a year-over-year basis, and wages and salaries grew three consecutive seasons. In addition, the housing market boom provided another boost to the region’s economy.

The State’s economy grew stronger in Summer 2013. The pace of growth in the State Index accelerated for the second quarter in a row. All five component indicators turned up from the prior year. The tourism sector led the way for the state’s economy. More travelers came, and spent more money. The labor market seems to be getting stronger as well; the pace of growth in the number of employed residents accelerated for the second consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis, and wages and salaries increased four straight quarters. Leading indicators, however, suggested that the state’s economy was not yet on a strong footing. Only two of the four state leading indicators remained up; inverted initial unemployment claims and weekly work hours were up, while building permits of single family homes and new business formation were down. The state’s housing market continued to expand, although there were signs that the boom was nearing its peak.

Spring 2013

July 6th, 2013 by Daniel Lee

Tourism Boost Recovery

In Spring 2013, there were encouraging signs in the economy. The Coos Index rose from Winter 2013. This quarterly increase from prior season was the first time since summer 2010. On a quarterly year-over-year basis, while the Index continued to decline, the pace of declines decreased for the second consecutive quarters. Two of five component indicators turned up from Winter 2013. The boost came from the tourism industry. The better-than-average snow season rejuvenated the North Country’s winter sports industry, particularly skiing and snowmobiling. The increase in the tourism activity was huge, particularly when compared to Spring 2012, which was one of the warmest springs in recent memory. As a result, the labor market was much stronger; the number of employed residents increased by the fastest rate that had not been seen since the Great Recession began. The housing market continued its recovery, while there were some signs that the housing market rebound might be slowing.

The overall picture of the State’s economy looked more positive in spring 2013 than in winter 2013, although it still remained far from being a vibrant economy that everyone has been waiting for. Although at a crawling pace, the revised State Index did increase for the 11th consecutive quarters on a quarterly year-over-year basis. Four of five component indicators turned up compared to a year ago. The largest contribution came from the tourism industry. Snowy March and April brought businesses to the state’s ski and snowmobile industry. Spending for lodging was up from Spring 2012. The labor market showed encouraging signs as well; the pace of increases in the number of employed residents rose for the first time since Winter 2012 on a quarterly year-over-year basis. In addition, leading indicators for the state of New Hampshire seem to indicate a brighter economy ahead; three of the four state leading indicators remained up. The state’s housing market remained on the rebound as well; the median home price increased at a rate faster than Winter 2013, while the pace of increases in the volume of home sales slowed two quarters in a row.

Winter 2013

April 2nd, 2013 by Daniel Lee

Economic Recovery Losing Steam?

In Winter 2013, the Coos Index fell for the eighth quarter in a row on a quarterly year-over-year basis. All five component indicators were down from a year ago. On a positive note, the pace of declines slowed for the first time in a year. The hospitality sector, which had been on a downward trend in the wake of the closure of the BALSAMS, may have bottomed out. Spending on accommodations by travelers was up from the prior quarter for the first time since summer 2011. Economic activity declined in the goods-producing sector; industrial electricity sales continued to fall by a double-digit figure. The labor market indicators, which measure the performance of the broader economy, continued to struggle; both number of employed residents and estimated wages and salaries declined on a quarterly year-over-year basis.

In Winter 2013, the State’s economic recovery remained sluggish. The revised State Index inched down for the first time on a quarterly year-over-year basis since the Great Recession ended. Three of the five component indicators turned down compared to a year ago. The hospitality sector struggled; both spending on accommodations by travelers and average Saturday traffic counts were down from a year ago. The signs of the sluggish labor market had become clearer every quarter; the growth of the number of employed residents nearly came to a halt after four consecutive quarters of steady declines, while estimated wages and salaries already started declining. On positive notes, economic activity in the goods-producing sector was strong; industrial electricity sales continued to climb on a quarterly year-over-year basis. The state’s housing market remained on the rebound as well; the median home price turned up for the first time since Fall 2010 on a quarterly year-over-year basis. In addition, three of the four leading indicators were up, which may suggest that the decline in the State Index in winter 2013 is more of a sign of the vulnerability of the state’s current economic conditions rather than an imminent recession.