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In Winter 2013, the Coos Index fell for the eighth quarter in a row on a quarterly year-over-year basis. All five component indicators were down from a year ago. On a positive note, the pace of declines slowed for the first time in a year. The hospitality sector, which had been on a downward trend in the wake of the closure of the BALSAMS, may have bottomed out. Spending on accommodations by travelers was up from the prior quarter for the first time since summer 2011. Economic activity declined in the goods-producing sector; industrial electricity sales continued to fall by a double-digit figure. The labor market indicators, which measure the performance of the broader economy, continued to struggle; both number of employed residents and estimated wages and salaries declined on a quarterly year-over-year basis.
In Winter 2013, the State’s economic recovery remained sluggish. The revised State Index inched down for the first time on a quarterly year-over-year basis since the Great Recession ended. Three of the five component indicators turned down compared to a year ago. The hospitality sector struggled; both spending on accommodations by travelers and average Saturday traffic counts were down from a year ago. The signs of the sluggish labor market had become clearer every quarter; the growth of the number of employed residents nearly came to a halt after four consecutive quarters of steady declines, while estimated wages and salaries already started declining. On positive notes, economic activity in the goods-producing sector was strong; industrial electricity sales continued to climb on a quarterly year-over-year basis. The state’s housing market remained on the rebound as well; the median home price turned up for the first time since Fall 2010 on a quarterly year-over-year basis. In addition, three of the four leading indicators were up, which may suggest that the decline in the State Index in winter 2013 is more of a sign of the vulnerability of the state’s current economic conditions rather than an imminent recession.
In Fall 2012, the State economy remained on a long-term growth path. However, recent developments were worrisome. The revised State Index stalled at 96.2 for two consecutive quarters. Particularly worrisome was the labor market; both the number of employed residents and estimated wages and salaries were down from Summer 2012. In addition, all four leading indicators for the state economy turned down in November 2012. Although it’s too early to tell whether the changes in the leading indicators signal a change in the underlying trend, they, together with the sluggish labor market, seem to be indicative of an increasingly vulnerable state of the economy in New Hampshire. On a positive note, the hospitality industry kept the economy afloat; both estimated rooms and meals receipts and average Saturday traffic counts were up from a year ago. In addition, the state’s housing market continued a strong rebound; home sales rose five quarters in a row and median home prices were higher than summer 2012.
We are glad to come back to you with a new-look NCEI with improved coverage of the region’s economy. This new issue has three changes; 1) a student–created report has been added to complement the data-driven report and to provide a more comprehensive view of the county’s economy; 2) a new section of leading indicators has been added for New Hampshire to provide a sense of future economic conditions; and 3) the report will now be published quarterly. Ryan Bernier, a Plymouth State senior majoring in Sociology, spent the summer in Coos County, attending events, observing the local economy in action, and interviewing community and business leaders. He’ll be sharing his experiences here and in future issues of the NCEI. We appreciate all of you making your valuable time available and sharing your experience with Ryan.
In Summer 2012, the Coos economy showed signs of encouragement. Although the Coos Index fell for the 6th consecutive quarter on a quarterly year-over-year basis, much of the decline had to do with the temporary closure of the BALSAMS. This weighed on the local economy, particularly in the Colebrook area. Aside from the BALSAMS, however, there are signs of improvement. The labor market improved; both the number of employed residents and their estimated wages and salaries were up from a year ago. Average Saturday traffic counts in Jefferson and Northumberland were up from the prior year, indicative of an increase in travelers to the region.
In Summer 2012, the State Index fell for the first time since the end of the past recession on a quarterly year-over-year basis. Particularly worrisome was the labor market; both the number of employed residents and estimated wages and salaries were down from Spring. The hospitality industry struggled as well; both estimated rooms and meals receipts and average Saturday traffic counts were down from a year ago. The manufacturing industry chugged along; industrial electricity sales inched up from a year ago. Meanwhile, the state-level leading indicators suggest a mixed view of future economic conditions.
In April, the Coos Index fell for the 12th consecutive month on a monthly year-over-year basis. The percentage decline was the largest since 2009, and the pace of the decline was accelerating. All five indicators fell on a monthly year-over-year basis. The declines in some of the indicators may be attributed to the temporary closure of BALSAMS. Although the decline of the economic activity in the County had been observed even before the Resort’s closure, it certainly made it worse. The unusually warm weather and the premature ending of the ski season did not help the tourism industry either. Estimated rooms and meals revenues fell three months in a row on a monthly year-over-year basis; and average Saturday traffic counts declined 14 consecutive months.
In April, the State economy continued to grow for nearly two years. But there were increasing signs that the state economy might be losing steam. Although still growing on a monthly year-over-year basis, on a month-to-month basis did the growth of the Index come to a halt after steady declines since past December. Three of five component indicators fell below from a year ago. This is consistent with other economic data. The New Hampshire Employment Security reported that the number of jobs fell in April compared to a year ago; and the job losses are broad based across all but a few industries. In addition, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank showed in its state coincident indicators that the economic growth had been slowing in New Hampshire since February 2011, while the growth of the national economy had picked up the pace during the same period. It also showed that New Hampshire’s economy didn’t grow as fast as some of its neighbors in New England for the past three months – Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut. Does this mean that New Hampshire is leading the nation to double dip recession or following the nation to recovery? It’ll be interesting to find it out.
The real estate market analysis can be found at the end of this report.
In March, the State economy continued to grow at a meager pace. The economic growth stalled at a measly 0.8% for past four months. The state’s employers appeared to add jobs at a much slower pace; the growth of the number of employed residents slowed to a crawl on a month-to-month basis. The manufacturing sector remained a major drag on the recovery; industrial electricity sales fell six months in a row on a monthly year-over-year basis. The economy remained vulnerable.
The real estate market analysis can be found at the end of this report.
The revised data, after the New Hampshire Department of Employment Security’s annual benchmarking activities, showed that the strength of the State economy’s recovery had not been as strong as previously reported. In February, the State Index grew eighteen months in a row on a monthly year-over-year basis. But the pace of the growth ticked down for the second month in a row. The labor market grew but showed some signs of strain; number of employed residents increased on a monthly year-over-year basis, but its pace of growth declined for the first time since May 2011. Although it’s still too early to tell, the decline in the growth is worrisome considering that the level of employment still remained below the prerecession level and the current growth rate was only 1% compared to 1.9% at the peak of the 2001-2007 expansion. The manufacturing sector remained a major drag on the recovery; industrial electricity sales fell five months in a row on a monthly year-over-year basis. The housing sector, despite the increasing volume of home sales, was yet to see a turnaround in home prices. The sustainable recovery entails a boost from the broader economy.
The real estate market analysis can be found at the end of this report.
There won’t be a report this month due to a delay in the release of the county employment data, which is a key component indicator of the Index. According to the New Hampshire Employment Security, January county employment data is scheduled to be released on March 15 due to the annual benchmarking activity. The county employment data usually becomes available within a month after the end of the report month.
In December, the State economy ended the year strong despite some concerns. The State Index grew sixteen months in a row on a monthly year-over-year basis. The economic growth accelerated for the second month in a row after falling seven straight months. Particularly encouraging is the labor market; the year-over-year growth of the number of employed residents grew at an increasingly faster pace for the fourth month in a row, while estimated wages and salaries exhibited a similar pattern. The leisure and tourism industry contributed to the strong finish as well; estimated rooms and meals revenues expanded for the 13th straight month on a monthly year-over-year basis. However, all is not good for the state economy. The manufacturing continued to drag; industrial electricity sales fell three consecutive months on a monthly year-over-year basis. In addition, the housing sector remains a threat. Despite rebounding sales, free-falling home prices have yet to show any signs of a turnaround. All in all, chances of a double-dip recession that was increasingly likely a few months ago seemed to be waning with 2011.
The real estate market analysis can be found at the end of this report.
The economic recovery gained momentum in the State. The revised data showed that economic growth picked up pace for the first time since March on a monthly year-over-year basis. Three of five component indicators were up from prior year. The labor market continued to rebound; the monthly year-over-year growth rate of number of employed residents rose three months in a row after falling four straight months. However, the aggregate employment data may paint the picture better than it actually is. New Hampshire Employment Security reported that nearly half of the increase in jobs in November came from the accommodation and food services industry, where many jobs tend to be part-time. On the other hand, the higher-paying manufacturing industry lost jobs. This is consistent with one of the NCEI component indicators, industrial electricity sales, which declined two months in a row on a monthly year-over-year basis. The picture in the hospitality industry was mixed; estimated rooms and meals revenues posted a strong gain from a year earlier, while average Saturday traffic counts continued to decline.
The real estate market analysis can be found at the end of this report.
The State economy fared better. Its monthly year-over-year growth rate increased for the first time since March. Three of four available indicators were up from prior year. The labor market showed signs of improvement; the monthly year-over-year growth rate of number of employed residents rose two months in a row after falling four straight months. The hospitality industry seemed to have done better as well; estimated rooms and meals revenues remained up from a year earlier. However, the manufacturing sector contracted; the monthly year-over-year growth of industrial electricity sales fell for the first time since the end of the latest recession. The weakening manufacturing sector became a drag on the economy.
The real estate market analysis can be found at the end of this report.
Partly Cloudy. Temperature: 67; Wind: Calm; Conditions as of Mon May 20 at 08:00 PM EDT courtesy of The PSU Weather Center
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